I don't think Obama has a chance for a 50% approval rating in a year. Here's why.

First, his moderate stance has both sides encouraged. Hope is queen now, and everyone is thinking they will get their way. He's smooth, charismatic, and hasn't had the responsibility of president yet. Expectations are artificially high considering the circumstances. Could a new Captain saved the Titanic from the mistakes of the previous Captain? Right now everyone is squinching their eyes, crossing their fingers and hoping, hoping, hoping for magic. And there is no magic, if the ship is saved it's going to look different, and no one will be as comfortable as they were.

Second, much like the opposing forces acting on the last Democratic Congress, no one can be satisfied. One side expected a confrontation and repudiation of Bush. That didn't happen because the majority was way, way too weak. So those folks were disappointed. On the other side was the group which had held power and not couldn't exercise it quite as freely, and they were pissed at Congress. Actually, the Republicans got what they wanted but only with a fight and they didn't like that.

Obama will not be able to satisfy anyone, let alone everyone. As the economy worsens, hope will dim and the resulting hostility will be focussed upon Barack. The Conservative media machine started two days after the electing blaming Obama for the economy. On November 6, 2008, Rush Limbaugh started calling it the "Obama Recession". (There's a seamless transition from blaming Clinton to blaming Obama. You wonder what GWB was doing all those years.)

The Congressional elections in two years are up for grabs. The pundits are making predictions based upon today's popularity, and that won't hold as the country fades into a deeper depression, as the people who have lost their jobs can't find new ones.

The US will largely withdraw from Iraq and it will blow apart. Inevitable unless the US keeps an unsustainable force there. Bush has destabilized the region beyond the point of return. It's a bit like sitting on lid on a boiling kettle. Sooner or later the US will have to get off, and Obama will be blamed. Not the guy who built the fire, stoked the fire, added more fuel to the fire, and ordered the US to sit on the lid to keep it from boiling over.

One hope. The taxes on the wealthy will increase dramatically. The idea that excess wealth in the hands of the few creates jobs has been proven wrong. It creates derivatives and hedge funds.

Anyway, I think right now Obama is riding up to the top of the roller coaster, enjoying the view, the anticipation, everyone is happy. Very soon comes the downhill, less comfortable part of the ride.

Arf