This link was posted on Bautforum.com

Earth Impact Effects Program.
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/

When you plug in a size of 10 meters, this result only in air bursts where the fragments don't reach the ground.
However, just going to 20 meters can result in fragments reaching the ground if it's the stronger iron type meteorite:

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 10.00 km = 6.21 miles
Projectile Diameter: 20.00 m = 65.60 ft = 0.01 miles
Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 11.00 km/s = 6.83 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2750 kg/m3
Target Type: Crystalline Rock

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 2.03 x 1015 Joules = 484.32 KiloTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 62.9 years

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 6520 meters = 21400 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 4.55 km/s = 2.82 miles/s
The impact energy is 3.46 x 1014 Joules = 0.83 x 10-1MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.172 km by 0.121 km

The time between impacts of iron meteorites of this size of 63 years is uncomfortably short. However, iron meteorites are of the rarer kind. I wonder if the program takes this into account when estimating the probabilities.
Also, I noticed the program didn't change the probabilities when you changed the impact angle. For example coming in straight on at a 90 degree angle makes it easier for fragments to reach the ground: I was able to get just a 12 meter iron meteorite to impact the ground using a 90 degree angle, and the program says this happens on average every 19.3 years(!). But when you plug in 45 degrees, an actually more likely scenario, you don't get ground impact for a meteorite that size but the program gives the same average impact rate of every 19.3 years.

Bob Clark