America lacks only the political will to do anything technically possible in space. At this moment there is not any political will to do anything much "up there". So what does it take?

A challenge to the national pride. There are other entities with the capacity and interest to go to the Moon. American interests will be touting a "space gap" with the implied threat that someone will get something the US doesn't have. You'll see a lot of interest then.

The best guess is that someone will take the lead in a Moon colony, and the US will tag along. If not, then the PR folks will claim that the other guy's Moon colony has an unrestricted capacity to rain nuclear warheads down on the US and we need our own Moon colony to defend ourselves.

A definite payoff. The discovery of life, or the possibility of life, or DNA combinations which may resist or fight earthly ills. Unlimited funds in that case.

Then someone will decide to go to Mars, and the US will tag along.

But something has to happen to trigger the political will. Right now that's in the doldrums.

Arf