The article is worth reading.

There are seven options listed.

Only THREE can be done within NASA's currently planned budgets:

1. Stretch Shuttle program to 2011 and keep ISS program end at 2015. Constellation is delayed with Moon landing no earlier than 2028.

2. Keep ISS operational until 2020, using Ares I but pushing Ares V and past-LEO hardware even further. No Moon landing until 2030s? 2040s?

3. Kill Shuttle *and* ISS *and* Ares I, and put all the eggs into a heavy lift vehicle sufficient to allow for Lunar fly-by (Apollo 8) or an NEO asteriod mission. No moon landing programmed.

That is it. Note that NASA's current plan is NOT an option within NASA's actual budget. Sad but probably true -- I hope Augustine tells us the emperor is naked in no uncertain terms.

4 other options would require significant increases, and there's where you have the debate between an ISS / LEO focus with Shuttle extension, long-term lunar focus, Moon as steppinstone to Mars, or go straight to Mars.

Predictions

I can't imagine anyone would go for option 3.

Nor is it very likely we'll commit to splash ISS just a few years after finishing it (option 1)

Option 2 is calling for Obama to explicitly admit NASA isn't going anywhere beyond LEO anytime in the next 25 years.

But giving NASA the increases for any of the 4 exploration options isn't likely either.

I predict a fudge somewhere between 1 and 2. We stretch Shuttle, slide Constellation back several years, and claim it'll work on a fantasy budget but know that it'll be Obama's successor who has to deal with the next crisis.