Good analysis. Also,
Much has been said about supplying new aircraft to Ukraine. But that is also complicated. The pilots have to have some training in different aircraft (unlike the movies, it is not easy just jumping into an unfamiliar aircraft and flying it.) The planes would have to be painted to remove evidence of where it came from. The countries contributing the aircraft are not going to want to degrade their air strength, so planes would need to be replaced. And the planes can't just fly in from Poland or other NATO bases. Russia would see that. Somehow, they have to get to a Ukrainian base, along with spare parts, and support.