Well first, I don't care about docs that ordered W to do something, but docs that showed him doing it. The excerpt points to one doc for a two-month period without saying much about it, and one person claiming W served on make-up days in a different period.

I'm also aware of a Navy practice called "gundecking" where someone documents work the person has not done, or has someone else do the documenting. So I would give some credence to that single document, but not consider it conclusive.

The other major issue is that most people W should've served with don't remember him at all. Given Karl Rove, I wonder about the one person who does remember him. I also recall Bush stonewalling on the release of his military records - anyone know how that played out?

Upshot for me - possible or even probable that Bush deserted, but no smoking gun, and unlikely to get clearer at this point. I put it as more likely than his cocaine use (my guess is less than 50% chance for that), and less likely than him being an alcoholic.