My team is aiming for an X-Prize class vehicle in 2003. As it stands, I'm really not all that worried about any of the other teams getting there first.

I applaud Starchaser for having a fairly successful flight of a significant sized vehicle. It is the largest vehicle ever launched on HPR motors, and there is definitely some hard work involved in pulling it off. However, there is nothing there that isn't present in a common level three HPR rocket other than sheer size. It has taken them many years to get this far, so I don't think they have a prayer of working out liquid fuel motors, guidance and control, human factors, and reentry in the next couple years.

If one of the commercially oriented companies like Pioneer or TGV has someone give them all the funding they need (many tens of millions), then they will likely win the X-Prize incidentally on the way to their real goal. I don't think this is likely in the next couple years.

Both Canadian teams look like solid contenders, but it isn't clear that they have the financial resources to take their plans all the way through development and testing.

The most likely candidate for a win within two years would be someone tossing a few million dollars at Burt Rutan and telling him to go do it right now. I only have second hand information about his work, but I don't think he is planning on doing any real work until the full $10M prize is there, and even then he may not do the work out-of-pocket.

Our progress is updated almost every week if anyone is interested in following along. We have full 3DOF attitude control VTVL test vehicles now, and we will have a man flying at low altitudes Real Soon Now. The next major goal is a supersonic manned flight in 2002, then space shots in 2003.

John Carmack
www.armadilloaerospace.com