I believe your estimates, but there is one problem:

There is no data on the primary source of oil. For example how much of the expected oil will come from drilling platforms and how much will come from tar sand & shale deposits?

I am certain that most of Canada's reserves are tied up in tar sand & shale, and that we will have to tap into them extensively in just 2 years if we are to maintain production at current levels. However Suncor recently abandoned a shale oil project in Australia stating that while shale theoretically represents an enormous resource it simply isn't economically recoverable (article --- sorry about the source). This occurred as recently as April 2001 so we cannot really expect the technology to magically improve any time soon.

So I am still wondering where the oil is going to come from? Have the number crunchers distinguished between how much recoverable oil is from the two different sources? I am guessing they have not; they certainly haven't indicated it on those charts.