Hello,
I realize that we probably won't find out the answer in our lifetimes but you are betting against 200-400 billion other stars in our galaxy and who knows how many planets.
My bet is that a small number of these planets contain life - how civilized, I'm not sure. Also, what is your definition of civilized life?
I think the opportunities for life are there; granted radiation, impacts, and other scenarios limit the chances for life. I just have a real hard time (when you understand the size of galaxies and the "universe") believing that we are all alone on our tiny rock called Earth.
I still contend that the sheer distance between objects is the biggest limiting factor to the discovery of other forms of life. We must truely master and understand "space time" if we are ever to have a real hope of finding other civilized species.
see ya, VINCE