"To make space pay launch costs have to come way down. That's not likely without some big push."

15 billion per year should be enough of a "big push". NASA is not spending tax dollars wisely. That's not to say I'm against a higher budget for NASA- assuming it starts to spend these funds more wisely [at least at the miminal of knowing what the money is being spent on:)].
NASA operating space launcher is not what I would say is spending tax payer money wisely. Nor developing technology for the sake of developing technology. NASA has taken the route of being a job's program. This choice has had consequences- not merely wasting tax dollars- but prevents NASA in doing it's job. The actual value the tax payer gets from NASA is a small fraction of the amount of the amount money spent.
If an agency wastes money then the result is generally to give that agency less money. NASA's job program does get it more tax money, but that money doesn't go to doing anything productive and net result is a drag on entire agency.