I like the Da Vinci team -- from what I've seen, they've done some very innovative and thorough work. However, being a rockoon puts them at a major disadvantage. See, the X-prize won't be awarded to the first team to successfully launch -- it'll be awarded to the first team to successfully launch twice within two weeks.

Launching large balloons like Da Vinci requires is a very delicate proposition. Wind conditions have to be extremely favorable, from ground level all the way up. I've watched many high-altitude ballooning attempts founder while they waited weeks and months for such conditions to occur at their site. The chance that such conditions could occur twice within two weeks seems vanishingly small to me.

I think it was almost a year ago that I predicted that the Da Vinci team might be the first to launch, but wouldn't win the X-Prize because of an inability to launch again in a timely manner. Of course, as with all X-Prize teams, I wish them the best of luck.

Cheers,

Nathan.