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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE

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Arafat Aims To Force New Negotiations
August 16, 2001

Summary
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is employing a two-pronged strategy to put pressure on Israel, combining escalated violence with diplomatic efforts. Facing the continued destruction of Palestinian infrastructure and leadership, Arafat hopes to force Israel into choosing between seizing the territories -- and risking international isolation -- or initiating serious political negotiations.

Analysis
Yasser Arafat, president of the Palestinian Authority, has spent this week in urgent diplomatic meetings to discuss the deteriorating situation in Israel and the occupied territories. Arafat met with U.S. officials on Aug. 13. He also met with the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan and with Arab League Chairman Amr Mussa on the sidelines of an emergency Arab summit. Those discussions cover Israel's seizure of Palestinian political offices in Jerusalem last weekend, including Orient House, the seat of the Palestinian Authority, Agence France-Press reported.

Arafat is using the meetings to signal he is willing to negotiate for peace, even as Palestinian militants continue to commit acts of violence in Israel proper. This dual strategy allows the Palestinians to escalate the clashes without appearing to be intractable. With little other leverage to pressure Israel, Arafat is hoping to force an ultimatum on the Sharon government: either retake the territories -- and risk international isolation -- or resume political negotiations.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.

Dan