Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to "We're baffled"

Every airline crash has an element of mystery

Airliner crashes are very rare events, literally on the order of one out of several million flights on average. In almost every case, there are elements of mystery.

Multiple eyewitness accounts and news reports only compound the mystery because of conflicting information. We do know that something terribly wrong happened on that plane. We don't know precisely what happened or what could've caused it. Terrorism or sabotage are possibilities that can't be ruled in or out at the moment. Simply put, no one knows what happened.

Did one engine fall off or did they both? Could one engine have fallen off early and the other break off on impact? Did a wing fall off or was that confusion caused by the apparent breakaway of the vertical stabilizer and rudder? Did the rudder fall off separately from the vertical stabilizer or did they come off together and separate on impact?

At the moment, there is a lot of confusion. Cutting through the confusion takes time. I don't know where our national immaturity that demands instant gratification for everything came from, but it certainly has no basis in the real world. In the most normal crashes, it can take from days to weeks to determine the probable cause. In most cases, it takes from weeks to months. In the worst cases, it can take years to determine the probable cause.

To illustrate my point, there was a crash here in Colorado Springs that took place in 1991. The NTSB didn't release their final report until this year. They ruled the probable cause was an uncommanded rudder reversal caused the crew to lose control of the 737 as it was approaching the airport but never could determine how or why it happened.

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