Re: fictional
It was probably a poor choice of words on their part. Of course they are projecting various scenarios (I have not read the details of their five scenarios as yet) to see what might happen. This is a standard technique in many areas of science, and there is nothing wrong with it. Maybe they would have been better off using the term "hypothetical," although maybe that's not precise.
My issue was that although they had projected some scenarios with little or no impact on the caribou, the Bush Administration was forced to point this out, because the press ignored everything but the other extreme.