Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to What makes you so sure

Not sure at all, but

Given that what the Israelis are dealing with is a guerilla war, what will happen is that the guerillas will simply disappear into the population - despite what you read in the US press about all of them being Aarafat's personal agents, they don't rely on a command and control structure.

Let's work some numbers. say 1 bomber currently per 5,000 population, psycological estimate - and with attacks, that number goes higher. each 1,000,000 produces 200. 7,000,000 produces 1,400. the explosives are homemade, no supplies to interdict. casualties approximately 20 per bomber. total casualties then 28,000, from the first round alone.

Of course, not all of them will be stupid - some will work cooking up chemical and biological agents, or on securing these from VERY, VERY sympathetic populations elsewhere - not necessarily governments - in which case the casualties go magnitudes of order higher -

One key to this is to take away motivation, and that's easy enough to do, by presenting any kind of viable alternative as an option.

The other key is interdication.

By the way, I wonder if the US forces in Afghanistan have managed to locate that room full of nuclear waste that the Gaurdian reported the Taliban having a while back?

ep

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