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STRATFOR.com
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THE INTERNET SOURCE FOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
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Egypt's Al Qaeda Intelligence Forcing Saudis Into Corner
June 18, 2002
Summary
The Saudi Arabian government recently announced the capture of suspected al Qaeda members, while simultaneously publicizing its release of Saudi citizens who fought in Afghanistan. Egyptian intelligence about al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia is forcing the kingdom to act publicly to appease Washington. However, it must balance this with contrasting announcements at home -- or risk domestic opposition boiling over.
Image Credit: l'Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Analysis
London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al Hayat reported June 17 that 160 Saudi citizens who were arrested in January after returning home from Afghanistan have been released. According to Saudi security sources, the men had carried out military operations in Afghanistan against U.S. and Northern Alliance forces. Nevertheless, they were judged not to have engaged in "any activity threatening to the security of Saudi Arabia or other countries," the paper reported.
Only one day later, Saudi officials announced that they had arrested seven suspected members of al Qaeda several months ago. The group, consisting of six Saudis and a Sudanese, were accused of planning to attack "key installations" -- including the Prince Sultan air base used by U.S. troops -- with explosives and surface-to-air missiles, Agence France-Presse reported. Discarded firing tubes from missiles have been found near U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia.
Both the al Qaeda arrests and the prisoners' release were well known to U.S. intelligence. Therefore, the most interesting question is not only why the Saudis made the announcement, but also why now? It appears the Saudis are feeling the heat from an Egyptian investigation into al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia, and they must therefore make a reluctant public show of support to the United States. However, they also must be careful to avoid being seen as Washington's puppet.
(The Rest of the Story)
(c) 2001 Stratfor, Inc.
Dan
Egypt's Al Qaeda Intelligence Forcing Saudis Into Corner . . .