Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to I'm sure you're kidding.

The population growth rate is slowing...

Do try to keep up. The world population growth rate has decreased substancially in the last 50 years. Some of this is due to good things, such as women chosing to have fewer children. Sadly, a lot of it is due to bad things like the exploding AIDS epidemic around the world.

According to this 1999 UN report, the population growth rate in Europe from is only 0.03% and in Eastern Europe, it's -0.2% indicating a population decline. According to that UN report cited in the first link, the populations of 39 countries are expected to decrease by 2050, some by as much as 25-40%. The US population is projected to increase but much of that is due to immigration.

Worldwide, the peak population growth rate was 2.04% from 1965-1970. That dropped to 1.33% from 1995-2000, a significant decrease. Even more significant, some analysts project the growth rate will drop to 0.8% by 2025. At the higher rate, it would take 34.3 years for the population to double. At today's rate, it takes 52.6 years to double. If the forecast is accurate, the 2025 rate means it would take 87.5 years for the population to double. Take it out a couple doublings and you'll see how significant that lower rate really is. The mathematics of exponential growth are really quite simple.

As for fresh water, there's the same amount in the world today as there was 100 years ago. The problem is getting clean water where it is needed the most. Some of the problem can be solved with simple and inexpensive technology, such as solar powered water stills and better purification techniques. Necessity is a mother - it forces people to change when they were comfortable doing things the old fashioned way. Centuries ago, England faced an energy crisis - they were running out of firewood. In response, someone discovered that coal made a good substitute. Later, kerosene replaced whale oil as a more economical energy source (one columnist pointed out a few weeks ago that John Rockefeller did far more to save the whales than all of the Greenpeace activists could dream of doing), and electricity replaced kerosene lamps for lighting. As one resource becomes scarce, others become economically competitive and replace it. It has been that way throughout history when the market is allowed to function as it should. It will be that way in the future if we allow it to happen.

Log in or register to post.

The whole thread (17 posts)