If the tape is a phony, then OBL is clearly dead, and/or al-Qaeda is struggling for someone to express their leadership.

If he's alive, why the phony tapes? Maybe to lull the Western nations into believing he's dead? Maybe the CIA knows that, and claimed the tape was real in order to keep the public believing what they already know, that he's alive.

If he's dead, why the phony tapes? Maybe to rally the troops in far-away lands?

As far as there being messages to their allies in the tapes, that seems very weak. The internet is there, and messages could be sent the way the BBC broadcast into Europe during WWII. With one-time pads, that sort of thing, it would be virtually impossible to decipher a message. No need for something so crude and unreliable as Western reporting on a released tape.

I think he's dead, and someone, somewhere is just jerking the CIA's chain. And the CIA probably knows he's alive.

If he's not, he should fire his PR advisors. And if he's dead, to whom does that vast wealth, estimates of which I've seen run from $30 million to $300 million, accrue. Should that tell something? Or is it possible to have that much money around, control it, move it, disburse it, without anyone knowing who owns it? I suspect that would be hard, as other folks might be tempted to run off with what they control.

Damned if I know if he'd dead or alive.

Arf