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Current Events » in reply to Would you like to repost your pre-invasion predictions?

Re: Would you like to repost your pre-invasion predictions?

"WMD use, missiles over Israel etc, etc"

Well, before France's veto (even after it) I thought political pressure might be enough to force Saddam to comply with 1441.
At the point of invasion, I thought there was a reasonable chance that Saddam and critical leadership was killed, so that regime might collapse.
Then after this I thought that some of the Iraqi army would rebell. Then it finally the regime "shattered" much quickier than I thought it would.
Generally, speaking I thought the other Arab countries would have some serious problems in terms of "some sort of " public uprising- that didn't happen. I thought Turkey could have been a problem (I should have known better). I underestimated the amount of US miltary power "in country".
I thought more US "regular army" would have been used. I was surprised at how long Basrah lasted.
I thought these "sucide bomber types" would be a serious problem- whereas it was almost a "blessing" they came to Iraq to be killed. I thought the JDAMs wouldn't work as advertised. I thought we would have more friendly fire instances (probably the small size of US army was biggest factor of limiting this). I didn't think we would basically charge almost straight at Baghdad. I thought their would be WMD used, though thought use against US troops unlikely. I'm surprised that apparently Saddam decided before the war not to use WMD (didn't think he was that smart and had this kind of discipline). And generally I'm pretty impressed with Saddam (apparent) plan of defeating the US forces- though any attack against US navy appeared to be non-existance [Saddam didn't have much in terms of projecting power beyond his border- the attack against Kuwait was pretty weak].
In summary I think Saddam plan was almost exclusively defensive and his primary miltary assets were his key command and control (this was a lesson he learnt well in Gulf war I). His army units were mostly decoys which he had little faith or put responsiblity towards as far as doing any significantly in terms of miltary action. They were to hold defensive postions and fall back in the towns and fight house to house. Saddam's main miltary power was his secret police. Plus his hired elite soldiers from outside his country were somehow going to be used. I think Saddam thinks, if he is still alive, that he still has a chance of winning this war, but I don't think we are going to stop searching for this opposition until we hunt them all down (Saddam probably thought we would quit as soon as possible, but we are keeping focused and going after the roots of this weed.)

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