Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to The EU in 50 years...

Re: Fails to take into account oil depletion

I don't know if this model is exactly correct, but we know that natural reserves of hydrocarbons (HC), including oil, natural gas, etc., won't last forever. This model is based on historically proven depletion patterns, applied to the known reserves. According to this model by the year 2050 the HCs available per capita will be 54 percent less, and perhaps the price will be inversely higher, or 85 percent higher. That price will climb noticably every year too, since reserves will deplete in an exponential manner.

And personally, I don't think that tar sand and shale deposits can be excavated on a scale to compensate for oil depletion without totally destroying the environment.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/csegw/images/img134.gif


We may all be driving so-called 1-Liter cars, able to go 100 km on a single liter of diesel. And with aerodynamic "in-line" seating the wife will sit in the back.

http://www.vwvortex.com/news/04_02/04_17/road1.jpg


Those that are lucky will be driving in luxury in a bioethanol-fuelled Seabring Convertible equipped with flexible fuelling:

http://www.fleets.doe.gov/vehicles/2003OEM/seb_con.jpg


The rest of us will just have to try to look cool with peddle power:

http://www.windcheetah.co.uk/MEDIA/Gt.jpg

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