Basic human experience leads one to believe that a far shorter duration trip is far easier than a much longer one. However travel through the frictionless environment of space is far different than travel on Earth. It is basically no more difficult to reach Mars than the Moon from an energy standpoint. It just takes longer to get there with the same energy. Older visions of Mars missions required far bigger rockets than those needed to reach the moon solely because Mars has a higher gravity requiring more energy to return and the total mass of fuel rises roughly exponentially because of the fuel needed to transport the fuel needed to return. Making use of Martian resources for returning from Mars drastically cuts the resources needed. We can go to Mars for far longer than we went to the Moon in total with far more scientific capability at roughly the same inflation adjusted cost over a similar time period. The obstacles are trivial compared to those we overcame to get to the Moon. This is far more bang for the buck and not as difficult.

Establishing a Moon base first before going to Mars is a massive investment that is not needed to reach Mars. There are reasons for a moon base and establishing one would help efforts to get to Mars from a technology standpoint, but if the primary goal is going to Mars, building a lunar base first is a waste of money. A Lunar or a Martian Base would help greatly in going beyond Mars, but Mars has the potential for self suffiencey while the Moon does not. I hope we do establish a commercial moon base and see a lunar base as a far more likely commercial venture than a Martian one in the near future. I think the odds are bleak however for either in the next 2 to 3 decades.

I would personally like to see a commitment to a direct Mars mission with a test flight to the Moon to look for water at the poles. While not absolutely needed it would increase confidence in the equipment and answer a key scientific question. An affirmitive answer would greatly facilitate commercial developement of the Moon once launch costs come down.

Regards,
Mark