According to the statistics I've found, the U.S. made around $10 billion in arms sales to other nations in 2002. That sounds a little low to me, but let's assume it for now.

If we cut that out, that's $10 billion gone, and possibly some businesses gone with it. I don't know how many manufacturers of military hardware rely on foreign sales to keep them running when the U.S. military isn't buying.

And like you point out, other nations will pile in to replace us. Like France, which apparently hates war but doesn't mind equipping it. Or Russia, where most Iraqi arms came from for most of the past decade or so.

Still, this brings up an interesting concept. What if we unilaterally quit selling arms? Okay, other nations would do it, but that isn't really an issue when you're talking making a moral point. Okay, our economy doesn't need another hit right now, but I think any realistic analysis would show we could take the hit and recover. $10 billion is a lot, but not compared to the GDP.

The main issue would be with those of our allies that rely solely on us. Political issues may actually outweigh the need to make money for other nations selling arms. Would France sell Israel arms? Taiwan? Would any important ally be left defenceless if we did this? I don't have a real answer to this.

The alternate issue would be loss of manufacturing capacity if U.S. arms businesses couldn't stay open. I don't have a real answer to that either.

I don't think I would support it personally, but it may be feasible to have a moratorium on arms sales that would make an important political point without endangering our defense like a unilateral nuclear disarmament would have. It's at least worth looking at.

There are compromise positions too. Sell arms to critical allies, but not to every Third World nation that asks.

Again, I don't know nearly enough about this to make any important factual contribution to the discussion, other than asking questions.