If winter ice never forms at all, that means temperatures will be above freezing year-round at the pole. I believe that would mean boiling seas at the equator.
If that's the new definition of GW, then I heartily can concur that no human being will ever see it. No, I think Tom is implying (he can correct me if I have misinterpreted him) that if there is indeed global warming, then why can't we see less ice in winter, too? The answer is we do! The winter ice levels are much more stable than the summer ones, but they still drop.
You will note the May ice change is much more moderate than September's, but still undeniable, about 2.3%/decade. I interpret this as that more ice has to be replaced every year in winter to replace what's lost in summer. It's a little warmer every year when the freeze season begins. Of course, when the sun is down for months at a time, it will get cold, but every year it takes a little bit longer.
It is this great thermal inertia that acts as a shock absorber for the global climate, damping out variations caused by short-term weather excursions. This makes sense, water's high specific heat allows it to both warm and cool slowly, so the ice level lags behind the insolation pulse, both in amplitude and phase. The arctic ocean is the global weather regulator, and we are screwing around with it at an unprecedented rate: a 50% summer ice loss in 30 years. I don't think we've ever seen that in historical times, only something on the order of massive continental vulcanism or a meteor strike could cause something like that. But it seems to be happening since that satellite got launched in 1979. Who knows what happened prior to that? The data is there, but is more indirect, more open to interpretation, and more controversial, and not necessarily polar, skeptics find it easier to attack.
Space/Science » in reply to The definition of gw that some are agitating for is that nothing freezes in winter? It might be too late if we wait for that.
As the ice drifts, the goal posts move with it.
The whole thread (22 posts)
- It always freezes in winter.
- Now that I think about it, I felt a cool breeze just last month.
- The only person less rational than an irrational person is someone who tries to talk sense with them.
- You win.
- The definition of gw that some are agitating for is that nothing freezes in winter? It might be too late if we wait for that.