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Current Events » in reply to Joint Economic Committee report on the economy

The payroll and household surveys measure different things

As the name implies, the payroll survey looks at employers while the household survey is more broadbased. The payroll survey doesn't include the self-employed and can undercounts small business employment according to this source:

The reports that quantify job creation and unemployment come from two different surveys. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), for example, phones established businesses to determine how many jobs have been gained or lost. This “Establishment” or Payroll Survey, has counted a net gain of 522,000 jobs during the entire Bush Administration. It asks individual businesses about the number of people on their payroll each month. (This number had been showing net job losses of two million or more, which has served as economic ammunition for Democratic presidential hopefuls out on the campaign trail.)

Meanwhile, the Household Survey is used to determine the unemployment rate. People are called at home and asked if they have jobs, or if they are in the market looking for one. In contrast to the Payroll Survey, the Household Survey shows that 2.4 million new jobs have been created over President Bush’s tenure in office.

A significant difference between the two surveys is that the Household Survey accounts for those who are self-employed, and small emerging businesses that may be overlooked by the Payroll Survey. Of course, the number of firms in the U.S. is a dynamic number, and the “fixed list” used by the BLS for phoning established businesses does not reflect new entrepreneurial activity.


From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Household vs. Establishment Series
Statistics on nonagricultural employment, hours of work, and earnings are compiled from two major sources: household interviews and reports from employers.

Data based on household interviews are obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of the population 16 years of age and over. The survey is conducted each month by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics and provides comprehensive data on the labor force, the employed, and the unemployed, classified by such characteristics as age, sex, race, family relationship, marital status, occupation, and industry attachment. The survey also provides data on the characteristics and past work experience of those not in the labor force. The information is collected by trained interviewers from a sample of about 50,000 households located in 792 sample areas. These areas are chosen to represent all counties and independent cities in the U.S., with coverage in 50 States and the District of Columbia. The data collected are based on the activity or status reported for the calendar week including the 12th of the month.

Data based on establishment records are complied each month from mail questionnaires and telephone interviews by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in cooperation with State agencies. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey is designed to provide industry information on nonfarm wage and salary employment, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and average weekly earnings for the Nation, States, and metropolitan areas. The employment, hours, and earnings data are based on payroll reports from a sample of over 390,000 establishments employing over 47 million nonfarm wage and salary workers, full or part time, who receive pay during the payroll period which includes the 12th of the month. The household and establishment data complement one another, each providing significant types of information that the other cannot suitably supply. Population characteristics, for example, are obtained only from the household survey, whereas detailed industrial classifications are much more reliably derived from establishment reports.

Data from these two sources differ from each other because of variations in definitions and coverage, source of information, methods of collection, and estimating procedures. Sampling variability and response errors are additional reasons for discrepancies.


According to this data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the payroll survey showed the following for January:

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000, with job gains
in construction and several service-providing industries. Manufacturing employ-
ment continued to trend down, but the rate of job loss has moderated in recent
months.


However, the employment picture is better than that based on the household survey:

Total employment rose by 496,000 in January after accounting for the
adjustment to population controls.


Guess which numbers get reported by the Press?

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