I'm sad to say you're probably right, Gary.

MRO and Phoenix are probably far enough along that they are safe, esp since much of Phoenix is reflying previously designed MPL hardware.

Ditto for Messenger (Mercury).

I think the biggest near term Kerry/Bush difference is over Mars Science Lander and possibly New Horizons.

If MERs had found only dry basalt in both locations, I'd be writing off Mars Science Lander. The fact that they did find evidence of water-laid sediments with potentially interesting chemistry probably saves MSL. Keeps the astrobiology paradigm alive, and importantly, it gives us a viable destination: Meridiani would definitely give us interesting science targets and benign landing requirements. I'd bet it slips to '11 instead of '09 for budget reasons, though, even if development goes well.

If Bush wins, that logic, plus O'Keefe's desire to break the nuclear taboo and the fact that it'll be one way to claim they are doing something witht eh president's initiative, means MSL probably happens.

If Kerry wins, I'm not so sure. He's been quite close to the hardcore anti-nuclear crowd (opposition to Cassini was by no means widespread in the Senate, Kerry was one of a small group), and of course owes nothing to Bush's Moon/Mars goals, so I'd be worried.

If New Horizons schedule slips, I'd also worry due to the RTG issue, but they are probably far enough along in development to be safe if they stay on track for a Jan '06 launch.

Beyond, that I'm pessimistic. Even with a Bush win JIMO is probably vulnerable -- expensive, risky, just getting started, and the nuclear issue. If they are that set on proving a point about space nuclear reactors then maybe, but it'll definitely require a serious investment of political capital.

Other big ticket stuff, I don't think is likely at all.