The crystal ball's really cloudy these days, and my analysis was based on too little information. Maybe the most interesting thing about the exercize is that to some degree the real players in the game must be making similar calculations. It's as much about the mind of Karl Rove as it is about the mind of Osama bin Laden.

Nice summary of Bush's shortcomings as a leader, especially the wartime flavor:

Bush, on the other hand, has laid out his cards completely. His honesty about his intentions and damn-the-torpedos, full-speed-ahead approach may be commendable on a personal level but doesn't exactly win chess matches. Were I a person bent on disrupting the United States, it'd be a pretty simple task of knowing which buttons to push on Bush to get him to react.

"doesn't exactly win chess matches"...Dubya in a nutshell. The problem with that shoot-from-the-hip gunslinger style is that while it may look decisive, it's predictable. The gunslinger shoots the first obvious target--no time for anything else--and that's an Achilles Heel. To put it pretty bluntly, I don't think Bush can outthink the terrorists, the best he can do is try to out-muscle them. And that may not be enough.

And yeah, Kerry's a cipher still. I just have to play the odds and balance Bush's demonstrated incompetence against Kerry's potential. I guess I don't see a problem changing horses in midstream when the one I'm riding is drowning. The other nag may be butt-ugly and may turn out to be just as worthless in the long run, but at least his head's still above water.