You could be right
Hard to believe they are that impotent.
The "one big shot" theory is also possible.
The situation in Russia shows what is possible when you are dealing with a large well organized group of Islamic separatists. Russia may not be the USSR but they are still a borderline police state. If they can't suppress terror with their military and a controlled press, you can bet we would have at least as much difficulty with an equally potent enemy.
It will be interesting to see how they react if their children are slaughtered.