From: San Francisco Chronicle(it has a .tmp extension so this link maybe no good soon)

Capturing bin Laden won't end Al Qaeda's threat, experts say
He's now a symbol, not a solo strategist, in evolving network

James Sterngold, Chronicle Staff Writer

Although Osama bin Laden has eluded what is perhaps the largest manhunt in history, the United States continues its pursuit in the hope that, by decapitating al Qaeda, it will with one stroke turn the tide in the war on terror. The hunt has been central to U.S. anti-terrorism strategy, and sense of national pride, almost from the day the twin towers fell -- three years ago this week.

More and more experts now reject that objective as an illusion.

Former government officials, intelligence operatives and Arab scholars argue that removing the titular head of al Qaeda may feel good for Americans bent on vengeance, but it could prove irrelevant to reducing the threat to the United States because of the near total transformation of the terrorist menace over the past three years.

For instance, the report noted, the terrorists who killed nearly 200 people in the bombing of Madrid commuter trains in March had no apparent operational link to al Qaeda and needed only about $10,000.

"What the U.S. has succeeded in eliminating was the 2001 al Qaeda leadership," said Sageman. "But that's not what is leading the movement now."

Even some of President Bush's strongest supporters concede that, while the United States has made progress, the threat has morphed into something more menacing and complex. Even if the United States finally succeeds in capturing bin Laden, after three years of failure, the impact would be limited at best.