Parsing the Polls

The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign is one of the best-planned and best-executed presidential campaigns in modern history -- up there with the 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign, which upset the re-election hopes of President Bush's father. And not since the 1984 Republican convention, which renominated President Reagan, has there been a national convention that's managed its message as well as the GOP's gathering did this year.

On the other hand, the economy isn't nearly as strong as one might have expected a year ago; the war in Iraq has not gone nearly as well as the White House predicted; and Bush has not been able to dramatically outspend his Democratic challenger.

Still, over the past month, the momentum has shifted away from John Kerry and toward Bush. This election is far from over, however, and it remains closer than most people realize. The current conventional wisdom that Kerry is in deep trouble seems to stem from a Time magazine poll conducted on Tuesday through Thursday of the GOP convention (August 31-September 2) and a Newsweek poll conducted on that Thursday and Friday (September 2-3). Both indicated that Bush held an 11-point lead.

Other polls paint a different picture. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll taken on the weekend after the convention (September 3-5) put the Bush lead at 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters. Among registered voters, Bush was ahead by just 1 percentage point. Meanwhile, a telephone survey by Zogby International, conducted on Monday through Thursday of the convention (August 30-September 2), showed Bush ahead by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. A survey by ARG (the American Research Group) found the race tied at 47 percent. The latter two polls included Ralph Nader.

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