I strongly recommend the book "The First World War" by John Keegan. This book is almost as good as Keegan's masterpiece, "The Second Wolrd War".

Something that really bothered me in Keegan's First World War (WW-I) history was that no one saw WW-I coming (it was a bolt out of the blue). People at the time thought the economies and military alliances of Europe were so interconnected that war was impossible. Keegan made the point that WW-I was a totally unnecessary war that lead directly to WW-II that lead directly to the Cold War, etc. In essence the whole historical narrative of the 20th century was set by a war that no one expected or wanted.

In light of WW-I, I find the confidence shown in the CIA Report disturbing.

Gary