Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to Prediction - a la TB.

My prediction on the upcoming Iraqi elections:

1. They will be marred with violence especially in the Sunni areas. (Obvious)
2. The results will be very surprising to almost everyone.
3. The results will be an extremely diverse group from many parties, none of which will be near a majority.
4. The Assembly thus elected will jockey around for several months until some stable majority coalition is formed.
5. A generally acceptable secular constitution will be written and submitted for ratification to the population of Iraq.
6. There will be a large majority that will approve the new constitution.
7. There will be an election of officers under the new constitution.
8. These new officers will take office and begin running the country.
9. The new government will finally succeed in putting down the terrorists.
10. The above process will take several years.

All of this will take place in a background of violence and assassinations and will succeed despite attempts to derail it.

David F Mayer

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