"I guess it's different, depending on whether one looks at the world from satellites or on the ground."

The success in the Middle east is what you seem to be calling the satellite view, or you call it a strategic success. Bush policy has given people in the middle east an opportuny to bring about change in the region which can involve dialogue between people rather than using the crude tool of murder and mayhem as a way to have a some form of dialogue.
The excuse given by the arab ruling elite for not allowing the citizens of the region a free political expression, was basically that the people would behave in an extreme fashion- such as rally behind some wacked out demagogue like Bin Laden and rush over the nearest cliff. Basically we were told that the people were so crazy they couldn't be trusted with self governance. [And somehow we bought this bullshit- and for Americans in particular, that's really the weird part*.]
Of course, the complete opposite has been demonstated by the people in Iraq and pinnacle of this was revealed in the election on Jan 30 and then followed by the peaceful Cedar Revolution. [oh, not to mention that prior to this the Palestinians elected a leader who wants a peaceful country living next to Israel]

*Actually when I say "we" I mean mostly the "elites of MSM" of which vast majority apparently bought this view.