Chris Vancil said:

"I've talked with a NASA contractor Sunday and he suggested the trend is now to work on only returning to the Moon a couple of times. No Moonbases and no beyond."

--- end quote ---

Look for two things:

1) Conversion of Space Shuttle technology to heavy lift, e.g. Shuttle-C
2) Development of a high lift/drag ratio Earth return capule (NOT an Apollo command module clone).

If those two technologies are developed then we're going to Mars. If neither of those techologies are pursued then it's all lies and bullshit. VSE as a Trojan Horse would involve 4-6 guys doing flag-and-footprints on the Moon followed by a total shutdown of the Space Program.

Three weeks ago I would have told you that we were looking at an orderly shutdown of the Space Program. I would have argued that the CEV designs based upon the Apollo command module were evidence that the Mars aspect of VSE was a propaganda lie.

What's changed in three weeks? The President's nomination of Michael Griffin as NASA's administrator. Michael Griffin believes in Space Exploration and getting people to Mars. If VSE was a Trojan Horse then the President would have nominated a no-name mid-level management bozo from within NASA Headquarters (the place is swarming with them). Michael Griffin's nomination is evidence that the President is sincere.

Now whether Griffin can succeed in getting us to Mars is another question. This might be Griffin's first test: Will he argue to immediately terminate the ISS and the Shuttle? This maybe politically impossible. If he terminates the ISS and Shuttle immediately then he's planning on fast tracking VSE.

Gary