Once again, a pleasure, Joe...

This is not about "paying for a rover to Mars", it's about making money with a private sector Mars rover...

There's nothing stopping Cameron other than himself, (or Disney or Paramount)... It's simply that they're used to making money with known products, ones financed and produced by known means, and then distributed by known means into known markets...

As far as the two prizes you suggest go, the up front costs for those particular tasks are too high for private ventures. And if the prize terms are whoever gets there first wins, then no one is going to risk the money. I also think that the private companies are not all that sharp, with maybe Elon's operation the sole one among them which may be very competitively viable...

So my objections to government prizes still stand... I think that the manned space flight prize was private, and you have to remember that that flight was simple up down to the edge of space, nothing in orbit or involving orbital speeds... I don't known how that market will work out financially, but as the PR effects for Branson's other businesses are and will be significant, he's covered himself...

On the other hand, if say the Congress wanted to reduce that risk of private Mars or Moon rovers with say some kind of tax break on revenues generated, instead of a prize, I would very much favor that... there's also the problem of launch quotas, and since communication satellites pay so much money and their operators have known markets, some kind of ruling or legislation moving a private Mars or Moon rover out from under that quota might help...

This is not my highest priority right now, but as I understand it, as it currently stands, Russia has a lock on viable Mars rovers because of the autonomous navigation software. [Carefully note that the MERs have now been loaded with limited autonomous navigation software which has greatly increased their capabilities.] Another factor here is rover price. Given the Russian lock on vaiable rovers, and low launch costs, it would strike me that right now you'd probably want to go with a Russian rover and an enhanced Soyuz launcher, at least as it now sits. [Did I mention the ground antennas, and the need to communicate your images from Mars back to the Earth?]

Maybe Elon's launcher will have a low cost, and maybe you could then find a low cost rover to use with it, an then perhaps some kind of antenna system, but my guess is this may be quite a few years from now... perhaps a US private sector Moon rover may turn out viable, if Elon's launcher works - no need for large ground antennas, no need for autonomous navigation software, as communication times are short enough to enable control from the Earth, limited launch mass, as landing system for Moon is much lighter -

it is just not a high priority for me right now...

as always, a pleasure,
Ed