depends on payload cost and time constraints
while you've asssumed it was a launcher failure before the failure report comes in, but you're likely correct. The prices are way low, so if replacing your payload is an option, even at a low success rate, the ecnomics work out. Probably future sales are going to be dependent on one guaranteed successful launch.
I agree with you about Musk's launcher, I expect their price will set the market price for small payloads, but that's going to be a while yet.