In their analysis, the ATK team neglected to mention that if you use EELVs, then 3 of the 4 launches could come from internaional partners. This is not necssareily binding, as with modular design, if any partner was unavailable to launch, then someone else could step in. The ATK reliabilty analysis assumes that exact timing is essential, when it is not. The only thing essential is a successful launch, and these are needed by satellie operators as well.

Of course, lower cost is not the only problem here. The ATK team has not shown how they intend to handle lunar orbit to lunar surface. This depends, of course, on what one wants to do on the surface of the Moon. Since this is the real world, let's make the practical assumption that one wants to build CAPS. After all, CAPS ( the best comet and asteroid protection system that mankind could build right now) is the only manned goal which the taxpayers in general (not just the Mars enthusiasts) will support right now. The US has already done Apollo, and the other proposed uses do not make economic sense, though it is possible that 20 years from now he3 may be very, very useful for fusion reactors.

So then, do we have to use fuel transfers and landing frames and surface vehicles with life support? The ATK team needs to be specific about how they handle this. We've already done Apollo, and doing that 6 times a year right now makes no sense, and it will not pass.

The catch 22 here is that the B team would have to line up the international partners intentions to move their best hope forward, and this is really NASA management's role. The B team needs to GENTLY insist that NASA management clarify the end goal for the project. What is their goal? What mission do they want to accomplish?

With 130 tons up for their most advanced shuttle derivative, the ATK team answers the manned Mars mission, if a single launch vehicle is used, but can that also be done by construction on orbit? Could manned Mars also be better handled with modular design and international partners? Should the US go it alone, and let others lead the international effort? Is that really what we want to do? What is ATK's final design proposal for their Mars ship?