It's a pain in the rear - I'll be heading for 80 by times I see a commercial fusion reactor.
Lack of long term thinking is the cause of a lot of the problems we face as a species now... we need to plan and act for future generations- I may never see clean fusion energy in my lifetime, but I can take satisfaction in seeing it progress...
Keep in mind the exponential nature of technological advancement, estimating the timeline based on the current rate of advancement often is overly pessimistic...
But once it's done then people will find better ways of doing it and - hopefully - the scale and cost will go down.
So to see that day come, we need to fund it now...
As for the solar option...
If I remember correctly the power of sunlight on the Earth's surface, with the sun directly overhead, is ~1600 W per square meter... world power consumption is (according to one web source, take with a grain of salt) 11 trillion watts.
Lets say we develop the solar cell technology to the point that we can collect 1000 W per square meter of panels. To make 11 trillion Watts you need 11 billion square meters of solar cells...
where do you put them? they are most efficient in areas near the equator, and in areas where cloud cover is minimal, you will have to create several times that 11 billion square meters (11,000 square kilometers) worth of panels, because they will be in the dark half the time... you also need backup arrays to take up slack from cloudy days, damaged arrays etc...
So, lets say you make 50,000 square km of panels (Enough to pave over 1/3rd of the state of New York...)
Then you have the upkeep of these panels... you also have to consider the power lost transporting it to the higher latitudes (Hmmm Ok, now we probably need say (pulling number out of the air- probably real number is FAR higher) 200,000 square km. forget New York, we need a bigger state now). Now consider the fact the panels degrade over time... Also consider the poisonous waste created making these panels.....
Now take into account that power consumption is doubling every 20 years
My state, Hawaii, is only 28,000 square km, enough for maybe a tenth of what is currently needed...
(Don't be too harsh if my math has a goof- I am a little sleepy)
Solar has it's limitations. I support its use whenever possible, but it is not THE solution.
Space/Science » in reply to I agree, but...
It is about thinking in the long term...
The whole thread (31 posts)
- Fusion a waste of effort
- It is beginning to look that way, but the story is far from over.
- There is more than the Tokamak...
- The only known working fusion reactor in this solar system can be tapped
