"There is no evil that can last a century, nor a people which will endure it."

Jose Marti

Expatriate communities of this type have much in common, I wonder if anyone has ever done a comparative sociological study of them, such as the Irish in America (with their pro-IRA underground), the White Russians in Paris after the October Revolution, and now the Cubans in Miami. The Vietnamese expatriates, I'm sure, are developing in a similar way. They all embrace an idealized and unrealistic picture of what it was like "before", especially if they were forced to leave their homeland for political reasons. I am Cuban enough to understand that culture, but American enough to be able to evaluate it objectively, and I think I understand the dynamic at work here.

To begin with, most of the Miami Cubans were also anti-Batista, too, so the conflict is not one born of an ideological split. Most of those against Castro now supported him at the beginning, as did my family. I'm amazed how few of them will admit it today, though. Conditions now in Cuba are pretty awful, both economically and politically. My evidence comes from relatives who have been there (some of whom have privately admitted to me of personal leftist leanings and a simultaneous hatred of this particular leftist government). I am convinced this government is evil, and that evil has nothing to do with its politics. It's as evil as Batista was, and for very much the same reasons, and it maintains itself in power the same way Batista did, through terror and patronage. The only thing Batista had going for him was that he was good for American business, so the dollars kept rolling in. And if you didn't give him any trouble, he left you alone.

My other line of evidence is the extraordinary actions people will take to leave Cuba, not to mention how many of them take them. The rafters are not just a Jay Leno comedy motif, they are one of the tragedies of the twentieth century. The Cubans know perfectly well how dangerous the Florida Straits are, even more lethal when patrolled by gunboats machine-gunning the refugees because they embarass the regime and there are simply too many to lock up.

As for America's policies with respect to Cuba, they have been plagued by the bull-headedness and stupidity which has always plagued all our foreign policy. They have only succeeded in making Castro inevitable, possible, and finally, necessary. That policy has been guided by one and only one consideration: a desire to punish him for nationalizing our businesses there. This has been compounded by the exile community's grip on our own political process. Castro would have collapsed a long time ago if we had just left him alone. That may not have been obvious while the Russians were there, but it is pretty clear now. The only thing that keeps that regime alive, now that Russian support has vanished, is the perceived external threat and Castro's personal charisma. And we keep providing him with all the evidence he needs.

Many of the Miami Cubans now recognize this, and are trying to open up relations with the island, seeing how that policy worked in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Nothing can long resist the lure of consumer goods and rock and roll. But the old guard is terrified that its leadership is being challenged by the newcomers, and that the policy they have pursued for a half-century will be shown to be flawed. They have responded with ostracism, even violence, against anyone who challenges their ideological leadership of the exile community.

As for the old question, are the Cubans better off now than before the Revolution?, well the answer is yes and no. Cuba in the 50s was one of the most developed nations in Latin America, with a thriving and growing industry and a vigorous and numerous middle class. It is probably true that if Castro had not come along its problems would probably have worked themselves out. I was there twice that I can remember, at ages 10 and 12, on summer vacations, and I can testify to this. But Cuba also had a vast underclass, particularly in the rural areas dominated by the American sugar cane industry. There was hunger and illiteracy and disease. I can't testify to the extent, because my family was urban and working class. For us, there was free schooling, socialized medicine and legal rights (as long as you didn't cross Batista). Today Cuba has food and education and health care for everyone, but there is unemployment, , mismangement, corruption, decay of public services and a grinding poverty which affects everyone except those in the Party. And there is uniformity and conformity.

When Castro dies, I dread what will follow. The local Cubans will stream back to claim what is theirs, or what they think is theirs, carpetbaggers from all over the world will pour in to get a piece of the money America will no doubt pour in to subsidize our industries and to help regain their foothold, and the Cuban leadership, like the Soviet, will trade in their Party memberships for briefcases and jobs with the new order. In every stressed ecosystem, only parasites and scavengers flourish. The business majors will always thrive.