Both your and my interpretations fit the facts well, and I wouldn't be surprised if elements of both weren't true. As the astronomers like to say, the theory is consistent with the observations.

During WWII, America did get help from Asian allies by promising former European colonies their independence after the end of hostilities. For the most part, we kept our word, in spite of the grumbling of our European friends. The UK eventually gave up Malaya, Holland gave up Indonesia, and we let the Phillipines go. France and Vietnam proved a bit more recalcitrant, and the rest, as they say, is history.

In my opinion, rubber and "La Gloire" had a lot to do with it, and we desperately needed France to join NATO. That's my take on it, and I really don't bring these things up to point the finger at anyone, I'm not saying I would have made better, or even different decisions if I had been in charge back then. My point is that events and personalities drive history and while you're in the middle of it it is hard to figure out what's going on or how things will turn out. I've used the surfing analogy before, skill helps, but so does circumstance. The only man to ride the wave safely to shore isn't necessarily the best, he's just good AND lucky.