Serious doubts the COTS winners will make it
They claim they can do better, faster and much cheaper than the ESA with the ATV or NASDA with the HTV, but can they?
Besides, NASA has no plans for the ISS after 2016....
ISS left empty once its finished (perhaps after all the gyros have failed and there are no replacements because no rocket can take them into space) and a divided interational community on manned space...and will there even be a Moon program?