When did Israel slide into the deal?
The hooting and hollering from your "sources" is all about a U.S. attack, with many detailed specifics and (until now) a date of four days ago.
The mythical U.S. attack under Bush's direction is where I'm calling bullshit. You want to talk Israel, bet with someone else, although I suspect it would be a cold day in Hell before Israel's current leadership attacks anybody again.
Fifty bucks sounds good.
Retaliation after a military attack doesn't count. That is, if Iran flips a cruise missile at a U.S. warship first, no deal.
Any other parameters?