(and don't forget the potential disaster continuing to brew in Pakistan, of which the current mosque siege/battle is part of!)

Begin: America exits Iraq.

The government of Iraq Falls, it not by coup then in effect- unable to control even the capitol of Baghdad.

Here is one way it could fall: Iran continues to solidify its influence over Southern Iraq. The Shia south starts heading towards the status of at least a de-facto Iranian satellite state. Obviously, the Shia are more than willing at this point to execute (or rather, continue to execute and also escalate) their revenge on the Sunnis, not only for the brutalization of the Sunni-centric Saddam Regime, but for the Sunni application of terror attacks and 'radicalization' that basically induced the current all-but-in-name civil war.

The Shia government, beholden to the shia people will follow this 'shifting' center of power towards Iran, acting more and more like a proxy/puppet regime for Iran. The Sunnis will see this as their worse fear: put out of power in 'their' country and put at the mercy of a 'shia' state more beholden to Iran than sunni interests. (Watch, BTW, what happens to the official reckoning concerning who controls the Shatt al-Arab waterway, that will be a good weathervane)

Violence will go through the roof, possibly escalating in street warfare. The Shia-dominated government may not fall in name, but it will be in control of very little outside the area extending south of Baghdad and diagonally down to the Shatt al-Arab.

Okay, so Syria has seen itself as treated like litter runt of middle east politics for quite some time. possibly going back to the power shift in the area that happened during the development of the major oilfields to their east and south- dunno, am reading more about that as I can. But, needless to say, Sunni Syria is not going to sit by and watch Shia Iran eclipse them completely. Furthermore, Sunni Syria and Sunni Iraq share extensive cultural, economic, ethnic and even political ties (don't forget Baathism and arab nationalism!). Syria is going to at least dump as much Arms, Money and Operatives into the sinni-shia struggle in Iraq as possible.

Saudi Arabia views itself as the middle kingdom of the region, and moreover, the sunni middle kingdom of the gulf. They do not want a powerful Persian, non-arab, non Sunni state. It would rub Saudi sensibilites the wrong way on many levels for such a thing to come to pass. Thus, they have cultural and political interests in instigating violent overthrow in Iraq.

Furthermore, Saudi Oil fields are peaking, some regions in decline. An empowered Iran with southern Iraqs massive oil reserves added to its own would be a serious contender for the axis of middle eastern regional wealth and power. Plus, the Saudis are used to being the fulcrum of OPEC with their vastly superior production... now rivaled by the new Shia Persian Superpower. Again, Saudi Arabia has not only cultural cause but political and economic cause to disrupt the shifting of political Iraq towards Iran. So they will be showering any Sunni who wants to overthrow the Shia government with arms, money and training. It will be three-fold perceived by Saudi Arabia as in their best interest to instigate violent overthrow in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia has one of the best air forces in the world. Iran has a very healthy Missile system. They both can target and take out those most excellent and 'dramatic' of targets: Oli Fields and Oil Pipelines and Oil terminals. Between the two of them, they can shut down the Arabian gulf for all oil shipments.

Meanwhile the Kurds are going to be dancing the 'jig of joy' as the Shia and Sunni, for once, stop trying to kill them and go off and kill each other. Now here is a gem of the middle east- the Kurds, especially the Sufi ethnic Kurds. Never have a people been so deserving of their own space to have their own unique and rich cultural heritage flourish in the modern era. And they have the ideals and the values to flourish.

And Turkey is not going to be happy about this. They want a strong political kurdistan in their south like they want a rifle to their head. They have been busily and happily oppressing their own Kurdish minority (substantial minority, 20%) for a long time- the usual fare, ethnic cleansing, outlawing the use of the kurdish language, economic isolation, discrimination. The usual. The last thing they want is the 'Greater Kurdistan' banner being waved at their several million oppressed Kurds by a vigorous politically strong Kurd pseudo-state rising out of the ashes of Iraq. Worse, one that is in putative control of the Northern oil fields, thus making them the worst sort of Kurd for Turkey: wealthy Kurds.

Oh, yes, Turkey will say screw the EU, and they'll be some blood shed. Given how intensively we trained and supplied the Kurdish Rebels after Gulf War I, and given the audacity and bravery with wich the Kurds have had to carve out their life in Northern Iraq, and given how brilliantly they manipulated the US towards war in 2002/2003- I wouldn't be half surprised if the Kurds ended up cleaning turkeys Clock. Might be the only good thing that comes from this. Although Turkey would then probably fall to the Islamists. That would be very bad.

Okay, so Pakistan is a powder keg- don't be surprised to see Musharif get 'rubbed' any day, especially if the whole mid-east turns into one gigantic holy war which everyone will pin on the 'Great Satan' invading Iraq. The very country Musharif has cast his lot with. When Musharif falls, the Islamists have Pakistan. When they have Pakistan, they have nukes and an almost national obsessive hatred of India.

India, meanwhile, has just had the fires of their economic renaissance quelched as all the middle-east oil

And do you think China is going to sit still either? Especially with a brewing or active nuclear war on their southern border?

Well, thats all for now folks. Its late and I have to go to sleep and have nightmares about all of this stuff.

Its a mess people.