This administration has been demonstrated beyond any doubt to pressure intelligence agencies to produce assessments which meet political and ideological ends at the expense of accuracy and honesty. Even so, in spite of that, the NIE has said Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. (Unlike Israel and the US, both of which have a lot of nukes.)

Iran also says there is no nuclear weapons program. Iran says that they are enriching uranium to use in a nuclear power program.

So what would a reasonable and prudent person believe, Iran and the NIE or Bush?

With a certain amount of sarcasm I would suggest that you may have some knowledge not available to the NIE which allows you to argue with them. I think you are under some obligation to see that the proper authorities receive it.

But if you don't, the preponderance of evidence is that Iran wants nuclear power and is not working on nuclear weapons.

I'm surprised you aren't suggesting bombing charcoal kilns, because while they may be making briquets for cooking those briquets could also be used for smelting metals, and metals can be shaped with points and used for spears and arrow tips. "I just want to roast my camel" would be seen as an excuse, and the last thing many Iranians would say before neocon bombs would be raining down on him, his family, friends, mosque and bazaar to teach him a lesson - that the US was his friend and only trying to liberate him from an oppressive regime.

Arf