A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

That's how it's defined, although the media is doing its damnedest to re-define it as "whenever people are worried about the economy."

As I've pointed out before, the growth numbers for the fourth quarter aren't going to start showing up until the end of January, and final ones don't show up until like March. Some current "predictions" say zero or negative growth for 4th quarter 2007. We'll see what happens.

For every economist predicting a recession, I can find one that predicts there won't be one. In fact, I can find an economist who will predict any viewpoint I can come up with. It's like climate scientists.