Generally, when I hear them, I tend to give more creedence to the ones advising caution than the ones painting a rosy picture for one real compelling reason.

Economists know well that their predictions often help to create or at least speed up the trends. So much of our country's major economic decisions, at least in the speculative world of the stock market, seem to be driven by emotion rather than the overall picture and anytime a well-respected (or at least well-known) economic celebrity makes a major announcement it stirs those emotions.

During times of economic uncertainty (which I'm sure you'll agree we're in), I firmly believe that these major stars understand the power they hold through their public pronouncements. If they truly believe that bad times are in store, I would see it as entirely reasonable that they would be tempted to soothe their message to minimize panic. There's less motivation for someone to go the other way in their predictions other than just a basic sense of duty and truth.

Remember back to times when the economy was purring along without the peaks and valleys we're seeing now. You almost never heard the cautionary statements we're hearing now. You make the statement: "For every economist predicting a recession, I can find one that predicts there won't be one." To me that says that roughly half the country's experts are pointing to a recession. That simply doesn't happen during those steady state times in my experience. My guess is the other 50% are trying their best to hold off the inevitable and prevent panic.

My advice to anyone truly interested in the state of the economy. Stop listening to people that have a vested interest in the content of their message and take a simple look around you. Ask your friends and neighbors how their debt/savings ration has changed. Keep an eye on business and real estate development in your area. Watch the want ads and classifieds. That's where the truth is.

Art