Local, yes, though when the hierarchy recreates in the Natural States, local warlords become governors and satraps, and the strongest becomes the One King Who Rules Them All.

But more important is your description of all this happening on the descending part of the trajectory; the Natural State is what rushes in to fill the vacuum when a nation falls apart. Somalia went straight to a network of warlords. In the case of Germany, one warlord took over in a single bite, then parceled out the spoils. But the Natural State can only occur when legitimate and usually democratic institutions stop working. At the end of it is always the last Strong Man standing.

We've seen how the advent of this "fascist" state is universally destructive, how it can only happen in the middle of an atmosphere of crisis and fear. Those pushing for the Natural State ram it through as fast as they can, ginning up fear and urgency, using emotion to turn off reason. That's in stark contrast to the organic growth over centuries of the feudal systems of the past. They evolved, rather than being imposed.

So I guess in a way I'm using the term "Natural State" somewhat ironically, since it's not so much an original state as it is the residue that's left when the "unnatural" institutions of civil society are stripped away.

It's what's crawling under the rock of civilization.