Four years has made a big difference, I think: The fact that "swiftboat" has entered the language as a verb suggests that this year there's a wider understanding of how Republicans wage politics, and correspondingly more skepticism. True, the "base" will lap up any smear, the dirtier the better, but I think fewer people who aren't already predisposed to Wingerism will fall for the smears.

And if enough people have caught on, resorting to smear campaigns may indeed blow up in the smearmeister's faces. Whenever I bring up the latest Republican smear campaign, Tom's instantly on the defensive, sometimes even arguing that it must really be Democrats doing it to try to discredit Republicans. He's got the discrediting part right, anyway, but it's Republicans discrediting themselves.

I'm not saying that Tom secretly approves of the Republican smear campaigns. But I'm not so confident of the good intentions of the people running the Republican campaign machinery. When John W. McBush sanctimoniously "tsk-tsk"s about the latest outrage and nothing changes, normal people will correctly see it as a nudge-nudge wink-wink defacto nod of approval. Part of the evil of the 527s is that they too easily provide that kind of slimey deniability.