Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to care to put some money on that?

re: care to put some money on that?

"Gbaike isn't interested in backing up his predictions with a bet, and TB is far too cautious, but maybe you'll bite."

Just for the record, I never claimed I have a prediction.
And I don't predict the weather in the next two weeks, nor next year.
I do think there could be a significant relation between the number of sun spots and global climate. But have also never claimed I could predict solar activity. If I could be more than 75% certain of what the solar activity would be next month or next year, I might imagine I had some forecasting ability.

There are a number things which I am quite certain about.
I think the Urban Heat Island affect is easily measurable and quite significant.
I am also certain that the claims of attempting to "adjustment" for UHI is flawed, and there has not any serious scientific effort to accurately and objectively adjust for UHI.
In addition the temperatures taken from ground stations regardless of any distortion caused by UHI, lacks a degree of quality that should give someone confidence in their accuracy.

I also know that in last few million years, we have been in a cool period [a ice age] and that the idea that Earth could have a Venus like warming is simply utterly foolish.
So, what Al Gore or Ted Turner is suggesting as possible within the next century is something I can easily predict will not happen.
Though no one on this board will defend Al Gore's fear mongering- other than something amounting to "his heart is right place" or other idiocy.

I also know that the current warming has not caused extinction of animal species, nor is there any reason to assume that future warming would do so.

I also think that a 1 C warming over next Century would better than .5 C of cooling over next century.
I don't know whether in next century it will warm by 1 C or cool by .5, but I'm fairly certain that it won't warm by more than 2 C or cool by more than 1 C. And I will bet it won't warm more than 6 C, nor cool by 3 C

"I'll bet it will get worse. Even odds, next decade is at or above twice the 20th Century decadal rate. I'm interested in serious money, either for profit or for charity."

Basically, you are betting temperature will remain flat or get warmer.
Do you think 2009 will be warmer than 1998?
Or when in the future do you are think it's likely that global temperature will be the "highest in last 400 years".

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