In point of fact, Reagan intended to privatize the shuttle before Challenger, and more importantly before it was ready to be privatized.

That mismanagement most likely contributed to the Challenger disaster.

After Challenger Reagan (under advice) rejected liquid rocket boosters, and just let everyone back into the launch industry using designs from the late 1950's.

During the Clinton years, Goldin managed to implement the EELVs. He started the X 33 RLV, which failed due to the failure of Thiokol's composite tank, and then no one else was allowed to try. The X 33 alternative RLV from Boeing was killed, by lobbying by parties unknown but suspected.

Goldin's plan was to convert the shuttle into the NLS and put men on Mars by 2020, but under withering attack by both the Zubrinite Mars nuts and later the neocons, he was stopped.

A large amount of tax money was also wasted on impossible and/or impractical small launchers at the insistence of the same coalition.

As far as Griffin goes, he came in the door with Ares 1, which many identified as a dog from the very start. The manned capsule was resized to fit the Ares 1.

So here we are.

But Jupiter/Direct 3.0 is there and ready to go, once Augsustine et al recommend it. The gap then falls to a little over 1 year, and we'll be in position to lead internationally again.