Some of the tech for Gateway could be used on a lunar base. Redwire's CFO Chris Edmunds said nearly all the tech they were going to provide for Gateway works just as well for the ground infrastructure. There may even be more work for RDW on the ground. Their IBDM docking and iROSA solar panels are not tied to a single destination; they are standardized interfaces. Whether those modules eventually reside in lunar orbit or are adapted for surface habitation, the underlying hardware, technology and value remain intact according to Edmunds.

Yes the ESA is screwed though. The tech the ESA was working on for Gateway, i.e., the Lunar I-Hab, the Lunar View module for refueling and storage, won't work at all on a surface base. The Lunar Link telecommunication system might. The Trump Admin gave Europe the finger on this, as they seem to so often do on nearly everything. I hope there's someway ESA's Gateway tech can be used in the future.

ER has stated it makes sense to have a space station intermediary to the moon base first, but it seems to me it would be inserting another entire layer of complexity, actually INCREASING the odds of having a problem.

With Gateway (or ER's space assembly station), moon travel is
A-->B-->C

Without, it's

A-->B

So we've reduced 50% of our hazard risk. Less docking. Less hardware. Less things that can go wrong. Am I wrong about this?

I'm all for space stations to assemble deep space exploration ships. Just not as an integrated, necessary step for creating a moon base.

Isaacman has said we may revisit Gateway in the future, but that is not going to be anytime soon I'm sure.